Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned on Tuesday that they would prevent any oil shipments from leaving the Middle East if U.S. and Israeli military strikes against Iran continue. The statement triggered a sharp response from U.S. President Donald Trump, who warned that the United States would retaliate with overwhelming force if Iran attempted to block oil exports from the strategically vital region.
Despite the escalating rhetoric, global markets reacted with surprising calm. Oil prices retreated sharply while global stock markets rallied, partly driven by Trump’s confidence that the conflict could end quickly—even after Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader, a move widely interpreted as a sign of defiance.
Trump said Monday that U.S. strikes had caused significant damage to Iran’s military capabilities and predicted that the conflict would end much sooner than the four-week timeline he had previously mentioned. However, the U.S. president has not clearly defined what would constitute victory in the conflict.
Israel has stated that its primary objective is to topple Iran’s clerical leadership. U.S. officials, meanwhile, have largely framed Washington’s goals as dismantling Iran’s missile arsenal and nuclear program. Trump, however, has suggested the war could only end with a cooperative government in Tehran.
According to Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations, at least 1,332 Iranian civilians have been killed and thousands more wounded since U.S. and Israeli forces launched extensive air and missile strikes across Iran at the end of February.
Strait of Hormuz at the Center of the Crisis
Trump warned that U.S. military action would intensify dramatically if Iran attempted to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
“We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world,” Trump said during a press conference on Monday.
Iran’s powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps responded defiantly, declaring that Tehran—not Washington—would decide how and when the war ends.
“We are the ones who will determine the end of the war,” a spokesperson said, dismissing Trump’s remarks as “nonsense,” according to Iranian state media.
Trump later reinforced his warning on his social media platform.
“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America twenty times harder than they have been hit so far,” he wrote.
Iran Rejects Renewed Talks With Washington
Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said Tehran is unlikely to resume negotiations with the United States, citing what he described as a deeply negative experience during earlier diplomatic efforts.
“After three rounds of negotiation, the American team itself said we had made major progress,” Araqchi said in an interview with PBS. “Yet they still decided to attack us. I don’t think talking to the Americans will be on our agenda anymore.”
The ongoing war has effectively shut down shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, leaving oil tankers stranded for more than a week and forcing energy producers to halt pumping as storage facilities begin to fill.
Oil Markets Swing Dramatically
The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei initially heightened fears that the conflict could intensify, pushing oil prices sharply higher and causing global stock markets to fall. However, markets later reversed course after Trump predicted a quick end to the war and hinted at possible relief from energy sanctions on Russia.
Following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump said the United States may waive oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease global supply shortages.
According to several sources, that move could involve relaxing restrictions on Russian oil exports, a step that might complicate Western efforts to pressure Moscow over the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Other possible measures include releasing oil from strategic reserves or limiting U.S. exports.
Oil markets reacted dramatically. Brent crude futures dropped more than 10% on Tuesday, after surging as much as 29% on Monday to their highest level since 2022. Global stock markets also rebounded.
Rising Gas Prices Fuel U.S. Political Pressure
Fuel costs remain a sensitive political issue in the United States ahead of the November midterm elections, where Trump’s Republican Party hopes to maintain control of Congress.
A poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos found that 67% of Americans expect gasoline prices to rise in the coming months, while only 29% support the war.
Drivers across the country are already feeling the pressure.
“They’re horrible,” one driver in Los Angeles said about current gas prices. “They’re too expensive. Sometimes you have to choose between gas and other things you really need.”
Expanding Regional Tensions
Meanwhile, the conflict continues to spread across the region.
Tehran was engulfed in thick black smoke after an oil refinery was struck in a new wave of attacks targeting Iran’s domestic energy infrastructure. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the World Health Organization, warned the resulting fires could contaminate food supplies, water sources, and air quality.
Turkey reported that NATO air defenses intercepted a ballistic missile fired from Iran that briefly entered Turkish airspace—the second such incident since the war began. Iranian officials have not yet commented on the claim.
Israel’s military said it had launched additional strikes in central Iran and also targeted the Lebanese capital, Beirut, expanding operations after Iran-backed fighters from Hezbollah fired rockets across the border.
Elsewhere, Australia granted humanitarian visas to five members of Iran’s women’s national soccer team after they sought asylum, fearing persecution if they returned home. The Australian government also announced plans to deploy surveillance aircraft to the Middle East and provide defensive missiles to the United Arab Emirates to help counter potential Iranian attacks.